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Tag: Home Ownership

Is Now the Time to Buy the House You’ve Been Saving For?

Thinking about buying a home? You’re not alone.

The National Association of Realtors reports that in July 2020, sales of existing homes were up 24.7% over the previous month. Meanwhile, the construction industry is booming as new homes are being built at a rapid pace to meet buyer demand.

Still, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the world, between the ongoing pandemic, increasing social unrest, and an upcoming presidential election.

Among our clients at Lake Road Advisors, we’ve seen many who were in the process of saving for a home, who are now questioning major life transitions like a big move or a big change in living situation.

So if you had been saving up to buy a home, you might be wondering if 2020 is the right time to buy… or if it makes sense to keep saving. Here’s what to think about to help you make the right decision for your situation.

 

1. Don’t Rush to Decide

The very first thing to do might just be… to do nothing at all. I know it sounds counterintuitive when it seems like the entire world is in a frenzy, and perhaps you know many friends, family members, or coworkers who are scrambling to buy a home right now.

But this is exactly why it may be a good idea to step back and take a moment to breathe. You don’t want to make major life decisions while you’re wound up or highly emotional.

If you feel like you simply can’t wait, keep in mind that you’re not likely to miss out. Interest rates are still at historic lows and there is no sign of any upward inflationary pressure, so you can probably still take advantage of a great mortgage rate even if you don’t buy tomorrow.

Make sure you have clarity on two things: what you actually want to do, and what your finances say you can do. From there, you can proceed. Just don’t get in a rush (or worse, a panic) to make long-term choices based on what will, in the grand scheme of things, likely be more of a short-term situation that lasts a few years rather than forever.

 

2. Consider Your Location

The pandemic has forced a lot of people to rethink their living situation as well as where they live.

Almost every business that could, shifted their workforce to operate remotely. Many could remain that way, even after we have a vaccine and can shift into a post-COVID world. But the work-from-home shift has also put pressure on families who previously relied on in-person school and childcare.

Before you completely change your plans and move halfway across the country just because you can now work from anywhere, you might want to think about the impact of support (or lack thereof) of your local network, of friends, and of family.

It might also be worth waiting to buy the house you’ve been saving up for until your work or childcare options are more clear. Not all businesses will let their employees work remotely forever, so you may not want to assume that just because you can work from anywhere today means you won’t need to be in an office sometime until 2021 or 2022.

On the flipside, there may be less need to be in the heart of a major city and you may be able to consider a longer commute if at least some of the workforce staying remote means less traffic and a shorter trip to and from the office when you have to return.

Finally, now might not be the best time to flee to the suburbs considering many, many people are doing just that and metro area housing markets are currently hotter than ever.

Clearly, there are many angles to consider on this aspect of the decision. The bottom line? Don’t neglect considerations of location when thinking about whether now is the right time to buy.

 

3. Think About Your Timeline (and Update It If Necessary)

If you’re like many people, perhaps the pandemic didn’t change what you wanted, but it did alter the timeline you had in mind before the virus.

As Scott Galloway writes, “Things won’t change as much as they will accelerate. While other crises reshaped our future, COVID-19 is just making the future happen faster.”

Even if COVID-19 didn’t set us on a dramatic new course, and rather, just sped up our trajectory toward what we were already headed for, chances are that there will be many new norms in the future.

However, all information points to this being at least another one to two years as the status quo. With that in mind, you don’t have to shelf the homebuying conversation forever. It may simply make sense to delay it slightly until we have a bit more clarity on what our future holds.

 

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Don’t Buy a Starter Home!

Why a Starter Home is Now a Bad Idea

If you were around during the housing boom of the last decade, then you may be prone to some flawed thinking. I should know because I was too.

Back then, before the housing bubble burst, home prices were increasing steadily and by alarming rates. Homes were selling for well over their true market value. Plus, mortgages were easy to come by and interest rates were at all-time lows.

The popularity of the “starter home” skyrocketed with more people given the opportunity to purchase real estate who may have been previously denied home loans in earlier years. And with access came a little greed too, because the mortgage-backed security debacle made everyone believe they could profit quickly off of real estate.

Advice: If you haven’t watched the movie “The Big Short” you should!

The idea of a starter home is that you purchase a real estate asset with the intention and expectation of selling it after a limited amount of time. In theory, your starter home will appreciate in value after five years and afford you the ability to upgrade into a larger home as your family grows or your needs change.

Of course all this hinges on the assumption that the value of a starter home increases within a five year timespan. For this reason, a starter home is not a wise financial decision and here’s why:

My Own Harsh Lessons in Real Estate

Let’s take my own experience as a teachable moment. I bought my first home in 2004 and watched its value increase rapidly within the first few years. I had built up so much equity in my property during this time that I borrowed equity so that I could make a second real estate purchase – a similar mistake many Americans made during this real estate bubble.

Ultimately, my real estate luck was short-lived. You see, I had purchased at the height of the real estate bubble and quickly experienced what so many Americans shutter to remember: tumbling housing prices. I eventually wound up selling both homes. My second home purchase I sold for a loss in 2012. And I only made a very small profit from the sale of my first home in 2015 that once held so much equity.

The entire experience changed me and helped inform an important financial perspective I share with you now about starter homes.

Your Home: Good Investment or Not?

Like everyone around me at the time, I had viewed home ownership as an easy way to grow my net worth and I fell victim to some flawed thinking. The truth of the matter is the American dream of home ownership isn’t a slam dunk.

I lost sight of the idea that a home is, first and foremost, a place to live – not an investment. Furthermore, if you view your home as an investment, it’s not even a very good one.

The Real Value of Homes Rises Slowly

Nobel Prize winner and Yale economist Robert Shiller brings to the discussion a blend of historical data and expertise on the human psyche. He argues that housing is not such a great investment even if you’re in it for the long-term.¹

In his analysis, Shiller found that in the century between 1915 and 2015, farmland’s value increased only 3.1 times. That’s only a 1.1% increase in value each year. Dismal!

And real home prices look even worse over the same period of time: an average increase of only 0.6% each year.

Costs of Home Ownership

Moreover, it’s important to consider the cost of owning a home. There are initial costs, as well as ongoing maintenance costs associated with owning your own home. Up front, you have the following purchase-related expenses:

  • inspection fees
  • appraisal fees
  • closing costs
  • moving costs
  • furniture
  • hen factor in the costs you’ll incur year after year for as long as you own a home:
  • property taxes
  • homeowner’s insurance
  • HOA or Condo fees
  • maintenance
  • repairs/upgrades
  • utilities
  • property care

Without considering all the various costs of home ownership, your “investment” can become dramatically less profitable depending on where you live.

Misunderstanding ‘Equity’

Finally, understanding how equity works is critical. Building equity by paying off a mortgage sounds nice. However, in the first few years of a loan, the majority of your monthly mortgage payment goes toward paying more of interest than the actual principal of your mortgage.

Tip: One way to pay more towards your principal in the beginning is to make an additional payment towards your mortgage. Anything you pay above and beyond your loan payment amount will go 100% towards principal. However, paying down that mortgage early isn’t always the best idea.

This means that as far as starter homes are concerned, building equity in your real estate asset is slow growing at first in most stable housing markets.

Conclusion

The bottom line: don’t buy the starter home. Don’t buy a home with the intention of trying to sell it for a profit in a few short years. Instead, rent a home and save the amount you would have been spending on those aforementioned costs for when you are ready to buy (and more easily afford) the house you will be in for a long time.

References

1.Shiller, Robert. Why Land and Homes Actually Tend to be Disappointing Investments. The New York Times. Retrieved 2/2/2017 from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/17/upshot/why-land-may-not-be-the-smartest-place-to-put-your-nest-egg.html?_r=0